Avoriaz and Tignes Forecast Comparison
Snow Forecast Comparison
| Next Snow Expected | 23 January |
|---|---|
| Next Snow Amount | 1cm |
| Next 48 Hours | - |
| Next 7 Days | 7cm |
| Next Snow Expected | 24 January |
|---|---|
| Next Snow Amount | 4cm |
| Next 48 Hours | - |
| Next 7 Days | 13cm |
Snow Outlook for 7 days
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Avoriaz, France
Snowfall
Snow Line
7cm New Snow
Snow Line from 1,192m to resort level (1,100m).
For more detailed forecasts for Avoriaz see: Snow Forecast, 48Hr Forecast and 7-day Forecast
Tignes, France
Snowfall
Snow Line
13cm New Snow
Snow falling to resort level (1,550m).
For more detailed forecasts for Tignes see: Snow Forecast, 48Hr Forecast and 7-day Forecast
Long-range Ensemble forecasts for 7 days
What are Forecast Ensembles ? Multiple forecasts from running the same weather model with slightly different inputs. The prominent line (the 'control') is the model output from standard inputs, the thinner lines are the variations. Plotted together, they show a range of possible outcomes; the closer they are, the higher the confidence.
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Ensemble forecast for Avoriaz, France at 1,100m
Daily Mean Temperature (yellow line is control)
Daily Total Precipitation (blue line is control)
For the full long-range forecast for Avoriaz see: Long-range Forecast
Ensemble forecast for Tignes, France at 1,550m
Daily Mean Temperature (yellow line is control)
Daily Total Precipitation (blue line is control)
For the full long-range forecast for Tignes see: Long-range Forecast
The ensemble forecasts for Avoriaz and Tignes are from ECMWF, updated daily. They can, and often do, change dramatically from day-to-day... BUT they are good at spotting the big changes and major weather events (e.g. snow storms) quite far out.
What are Ensemble Forecasts anyway?
A weather forecast ensemble is a collection of multiple forecasts produced by running the same weather prediction model (e.g. GFS) multiple times with slightly different initial conditions.
The chaotic nature of the atmosphere and the sensitivity of models to minor measurement variations, produces a variety of predicted outcomes - which together form the ensemble.
How to interpret Ensemble Forecasts
Ensembles indicate how confident we can be in the output of the weather model(s) at a given time.
Results that are tightly grouped (when the lines on the graph are close together) indicate a more reliable projection, while wide spreads signal uncertainty.
Precipitation and snowfall ensembles help estimate the probability of events: many ensemble members showing a peak at the same time indicates higher likelihood, while scattered or inconsistent signals imply low confidence. Over multi-week periods, ensembles are best used to assess general trends, such as tendencies toward colder, wetter, or more unsettled conditions, rather than specific day-to-day predictions.